Xinda Futures: Nov. 12 Non-ferrous Metals Early Review

Aluminum supply: Start-up capacity fell to 3664.8 tons, resulting in a loss of business overhaul shutdown; cost side: strong alumina, high coal price callback, cost slightly increased industry losses. Inventory: LME stocks increased slightly to 1055,500 tons, 209,000 tons to 780,800 tons in the previous period, and social stocks decreased by 0.9 to 1.41 million tons, and stocks continued to be degraded. At present, the electrolytic aluminium industry is in a big loss, and some high-cost areas have begun to close down one after another, which shows that the inventory continues to decline. However, up to 1.5 million tons of inventory and a large number of capacity to be put back into production can still guarantee supply, and the current consumer side is significantly weaker, if there is no other good, it is difficult to see an effective rebound in aluminium prices. But at present, the industry is losing a lot. With more enterprises'expectations of maintenance, the cost support of aluminium price begins to appear. It is expected that the current round of aluminium prices will continue to maintain a weak trend of volatility, and it is not time to do much.



Copper raw material end: copper concentrate processing fee TC last week maintained at $90-94 per ton; supply end: output increased annually, but exports decreased. In terms of rising and discounting water, downstream consumption has improved slightly, spot has increased slightly; in terms of inventory, LME inventory has dropped slightly to 1711,000 tons, down from 0.54 million tons to 142,200 tons in the previous period, and increased by 10,000 tons to 415,000 tons under the bonded area. In the medium term, the macro-climate of the United States has stabilized, but the domestic downward pressure continues to increase, especially the weakening of export expectations will further drag down economic growth. At present, the consumption of refined copper in China is weak. Except for the slight support of wires and cables, there are few other bright spots. On the one hand, the supply side releases new production capacity, on the other hand, the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper maintains a high level to replace the consumption of refined copper. Overall supply and demand are weakening, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile and weak. Operationally, it is recommended to lay out empty sheets over 50,000 yuan.